PigPicks for Week 13 of the NFL

Week 13 Key Releases:

Week 13 is already a winner, with the Vikings cover and we've got 3 more Selections below.  That makes us 9-3 (75%) over the last 3 weeks! 

Note from Boss Hog:  Our Key Releases went 4-0 in week 13 last year, which was good for +13 Units!  This capped off a 12-3 stretch over 4 weeks, or what we call a 'New Car Winning Streak!'

Broncos (-3) over Seattle - Quadruple Play

WIN!  The Broncos rolled to a 38-31 win and cover, but the key here was how well we predicted the style of play.  We told you that the Seahawk defense was vulnerable to the run, and Denver rolled up 301 rushing yeards in the game!  We also warned you about Seattle's lack of offensive balance, and right in cue, they threw 48 passes to just 21 runs!

Trends – Seattle got their first cover in 7 games 2 weeks ago in Jacksonville.  Denver is just 1-2-1 the last 4 games.

X’s and O’s – Every now and then, things just shape up right for a big play, and they have here.  Several factors have combined to make this line a very skinny 3 points, and none of them are valid.  First, Seattle had won 2 straight games going into their bye week, but should have lost to San Diego, and they were statistically dominated in both games.  Second, Denver has squeaked out two shaky wins, last minute victories against the Raiders and Chargers.  But last weeks tired effort in San Diego was typical of Denver after the Raiders game, and compounded by traveling on a short week.  Lastly, Griese's injury deflates the line significantly, but will not have as large an impact as commonly believed.

Ferrotte put up tremendous numbers last week, throwing for 443 yards and over 11 ypp against the Chargers.  It was the 4 interceptions that kept this from being an absolute blowout, and I expect Gus to be much sharper this week.  Particularly because Seattle's defense is absolutely pathetic.  Over their last 6 games, the Seahawks are giving up 8.7 ypp, have held an opponent to under 280 passing yards just once, and have held only one team under 100 rushing yards.  That team was Carolina, and just doesn't count!  They are ranked in the bottom 3 or 4 of the league in every meaningful defensive category, and will be no match for Denver's weapons.

I've written before about Holmgren's supposed offensive genius, which is laughable.  His Seahawks are 28th in the league, and it's as much his fault as Kitna's!  Despite their two questionable wins, Seattle's play calling has gotten steadily more lopsided in favor of the pass, when running is what they do best.  AFC player of the week Kitna will be benched in favor of Huard (genius!) and who knows who'll get the carries at RB.  I'm not sure the Seattle players believe in Holmgren any more than I do, and their play has reflected that all season.

Be not afraid.  Laying only 3 points to a team this bad on both sides of the ball is a gift!

GUH Report – Tracking the Great Unwashed Herd

The Holmgren Mystique is alive and well, and dependably wrong.

Ravens (-16) over Browns - Triple PLAY     

WIN!  Not much to brag about here, a pretty simple 44-7 romp.  But it did take stones to lay 16 points with a Baltimore team who's offense was comatose from time to time in Y2K!  The defense did its job, as predicted, holding the Browns to just 28 yards rushing.

Trends – Baltimore has covered 3 straight, the Browns 2 straight.

X’s and O’s – I must admit that I had to rethink this selection several times before deciding to release this game.  So I don't want you to think that I take lightly the prospect of laying 2+ TD's on a team so recently incapable of scoring at all!  But still, this is a solid play, and warrants our investment.  If the Ravens revert to form and go into an offensive shell, so be it.  But I do not believe that will happen here.

Here's a little handicapping pearl of wisdom for you:  When laying a big number, it is far more important to have a dominant defense than a dominant offense!  Covering 16 pts. on Sunday will depend entirely on Baltimore's ability to hold Cleveland to 10 pts or less.  Looks pretty obvious that they will, and here's why.  Cleveland has scored 10 or less in 5 of their last 6 games, and 7 of their last 9!  The only execptions were New England and Arizona, which hardly compare to Balt's defense.  Even with the Titans turning it over 7 times, they scored only 10 points.  Pretty weak.

The reasons are simple.  In 5 of their last 6 games, the Browns have been held under 55 rushing yards, which is unheard of.  In those same games, the Browns are giving up over 150 rushing yards/game.  Teams that get consistently outrushed by that margin cover less that 10% of the time!   Last time these 2 teams met, the Browns ran 13 times for 23 yards.   End of story.

One last thing about last week.  Yeah, it was close, 7 turnovers will do that.  But the Browns got a total of 5 first downs in that game, and gained just 113 total yards!

GUH Report – Tracking the Great Unwashed Herd - The post Thanksgiving weekend has always been a great GUH-trap:  They can't see past their GUHts to see the facts!

Oakland (-11) over Atlanta - Triple Play      

WIN!  Oakland blows the Falcons out 44-14, holding Atlanta to 14 two TD's, as we expected.  Atlanta threw for only 150 yards, got sacked 6 times, and Chandler didn't finish the game!

Trends – The Raiders have covered 3 straight, and 7 of their last 8.  Atlanta is 3-3 on the road this year.

X’s and O’s - Atlanta has been a frequent 'go against' team for us this year, and it paid off again last week as the Falcons laid an egg in San Francisco.  We'll take the other side again this week, as the Falcons look to be severely out-gunned in this contest.

Last week was Atlanta's best chance to put up some reasonable offensive numbers, as the 49ers have really struggled on pass-D.  But Chandler & Co could only muster 118 yards passing, and a ridiculous 3.5 yards/pass!  That makes it 2 straight weeks of less than 120 yards passing and under 4 ypp.  Chandler is simply tired of getting his brains beat in, so he's chuckin' and duckin' at the first sign of pressure.  This team has very little talent on the offensive side of the ball, and even less heart.  I look for Atlanta to post their 4th consecutive game with 14 points or less, which won't be nearly enough.

Oakland still has plenty to play for, and will do so this week.  They can smell home field in the playoffs, and you can bet that HC Gruden will have them focused.  Crockett and Kaufman will combine to carry the load in Wheatley's absence, and QB Gannon will guide his squad to a methodical and convincing win.  In their last 4 home games, Oakland has averaged 35 points per contest!  The 11 pt. number may look too big at first, but our model indicates that it is at least 5 points light, so I'll load up here.

GUH Report – Tracking the Great Unwashed Herd -  The GUH still has the burn marks from betting Oakland as a big home-favorite, that's why the line is only 11!

 

VIKINGS (-6.5) over Dallas - Triple PLAY    

WIN!  The Vikes came through with a smooth 27-15 Turkey Day win.  Moss went nuts with two highlight film catches, and R. Smith ran for 148 yards.  Dallas managed only 3 field goals in 57 minutes of football before the scrubs scored a meaningless TD with 2:32 left in the game.

Trends – Dallas is 2-3 ATS at home, and they've covered just one of their last 4 games.  Minnesota is 7-4 ATS on the year, but have dropped 2 straight 'away'.

X’s and O’s – This is a Holiday gift, pure and simple.  What in the world  are people thinking making this line under double digits?  Sometimes it's best to just say "thanks". 

Loyal clients of PigPicks.com could probably write this section themselves, so I'll just hit the high spots.  The one thing the everybody should know about Dallas this year is that good running backs have had a field day against them.  The 'Boys have given up over 4 ypc to every single team they've played, except the lowly Cardinals.  Against the 4 good running teams they've faced, that balloons to 6 yards per carry and 255 yards/game!  Robert Smith is the best RB they've face, so things are bound to get worse!  Add to that their banged up secondary (both Teague and Woodson are out), and Moss and Carter will be in party mode as well.  In 4 of Dallas' last 4 games, the Cowboys have given up a whopping 9.63 ypp to Jacksonville and 9.54 ypp to Dilfer and the Ravens!  This could be a humiliating blowout, similar to their playoff meeting last year.

The Vikings' defense is average at best, but Dallas does not have the weapons to do serious damage.  They'll try to establish Emmitt early and often, and might have some success.  But eventually, the score will stretch out, forcing them to the air, and they are fundamentally ill-equipped to do battle.

This game is a complete mismatch and qualifies in several technical and fundamental schemes that hit over 75% over several years.  Get a head start this week and Triple-Up!

GUH Report – Tracking the Great Unwashed Herd - Dallas wouldn't lay down on Thanksgiving would they?  Why not, they've done so all year!

I Wouldn’t If I Were You…( Stay Away Games)

...where only Suckers dare to tread!

This game was exactly the bowl of crap we said it would be.  The Lions covered easy, But the Pats had deep drives that ended in turnovers, and twice the penalty yardage the Lions had.  I was so glad to be out of this one!

Lions/Patriots - Here's the dilemma.  The Lions should easily handle the Patriots, but are clearly bad enough not too.  Don't let last week fool you, the Giants pissed that game away with 3 turnovers and a blocked punt for a TD in the first-half!  The Patriots don't deserve to be backed in any situation, so its a massive 'no action'.  Eat early, smoke a good cigar, avoid this game like your bearded aunt, and settle in for the Vikings' romp!  - Turned out to be a pretty good idea, didn't it!

Good Luck - Boss Hog