Super Bowl Sunday!

RAVENS (-3) over Giants: 4-Star Play

X’s and O’s – The analysis boils down to this.  Are the Giants as good as they looked beating the Vikings 41-0, or as bad as they looked when they couldn't score a TD against the Eagles?  The 32.5 total posted in this game tells you that the defenses will rule the day, so which one rules supreme?  Can the Giants create offensive balance, without which they will certainly lose badly?  I think not, and here's why.

The Giants started the year looking like the premier running team in the NFL, averaging 164 ypg and over 4.5 ypc in their first 4 games. But that ended quickly. Over their last 12 games the Giants played only 3 teams that gave up less than 4yards/carry. Against Tennessee in week 5, they were held to 24 yards on 12 carries for 2.0 ypc.  Against Pittsburgh, they ran 26 times for 68 and a 2.61 average, and against Jacksonville, 31 carries for 80 yards and 2.58 per rush.  The Giants failed to run for 100 yards in 4 of their last 6 games, and they were held to less than 4 yards/carry in 8 of their last 9 games.  Despite a schedule packed with the worst rushing defenses in the league, the Giants were 23rd in yards-per-carry since Week 8.  Bottom line, When the Giants played even a decent running team, they were shut down. Now they play the best run D in the league, and I can promise you this, they will not run!

It is likely that New York will try to run, in order to protect the inconsistent Collins, but it will be a failed experiment.  Then they’ll make their second mistake. They’ll abandon the run game.  If they quit running, they’re dead. When the Giants ran the ball less than 25 times, they were 0-4 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, losing all of them by double digits!  That’s because when you can’t establish the run, a good defense will dominate your offense. Forced to rely on Collins to win those games, they turned the ball over 12 times.  This team threw for over 235 yards only 3 times in the regular season!  Many of the 'experts' who like the Giants believe that Collins will win the game for them through the air.  That's why you come here for your analysis...those guys are loosely connected to reality!  When the Giants played the Titans, a similar but still inferior defense to Baltimore's, 24 yards rushing meant Collins had to throw.  Lacking offensive balance, the Titans dominated the game, winning time of possession 43-17, and posting a 21 point halftime lead.  Please, don't put Collins in the Hall of Fame just yet!  The Ravens have already humiliated two teams that both run the ball better than New York, so there’s no reason to think that they won't shut these guys down too.  The Raiders #1 rushing offense was absolutely stuffed, as Wheatley gained 7 yards all day.

The Giants have a stout defense of their own, and I expect them to play well. But there are holes in this squad, and I think the Ravens will find them. The Giants gave up just 3.3 ypc for the season, and gave up 100 yards rushing just 3 times. But here’s the catch: they only played 3 good running teams all year. In those 3 games, (2 against Philly, and one against the Rams), the Giants gave up 5.4 ypc!  So yes, their stats are a function of the competition they played. Over the last half of the regular season, the Ravens averaged 4.4 ypc, 8th best in the league, and I believe that they’ll bang some holes in the Giant Defense. Jamal Lewis is a fiercely determined runner, and if Billick will stay with him, he’ll be the difference.  The Giants' pass rush was awesome in both the Philly and the Viking game.  But those teams were pass only, and the Ravens will back them off with their power run game.

Special teams play a big part in games like this, and that edge goes to the Ravens as well.  Baltimore pinned more teams inside the 20 than anyone in the NFL.  So you have to work a long field against this stifling defense.  Not good odds.  Jermayne Lewis does the return work, and is one of the leagues best, so the Ravens pick up 10-15 yards of field position on each change of possession. The field shrinks, the defense prevails, and scoring opportunities are created. 

Look, this game is just not nearly as close as anyone thinks it is. Here’s a couple of last minute thoughts just in case you’re still undecided. Two games ago, the Giants couldn’t score a TD against the Eagles, who are nowhere near as good as Baltimore defensively. In week 15, the Giants had to overcome a 13 point deficit to beat Dallas! That’s the same Dallas team that ranked dead last in rushing defense, yet held the mighty Giants to 3.1 ypc! Forget the Vikings game! That game was a masquerade ball for the Giants. They are not nearly as good as the pathetic Viking D made them look. Lastly, the Ravens held their opponents to less than 2.5 ypc 9 times this year, and less than 2 ypc in 5 of those games. You just don’t run on this team, and if you don’t run, you won’t win!

If Baltimore doesn't lose the turnover battle, this game will not be close.  Remember that the last 4 times the over/under was this low for a Super Bowl, the games did go under, and the better defense won and covered.  There is no question who the better defense is, or who will win this game.  Ravens and (gulp!) Dilfer take the Ring!!!

Good Luck - Boss Hog