Handicapping rags are absolutely packed full of trends, with many service relying on them almost exclusively.  But I want to tell you how we use trends, and what to watch out for regarding trends in general.  There is tremendous value in trends of a certain type, but absolutely NO VALUE in most of the trends that get published every day.

The Garbage (Trends Disguised as Coincidences) - So many of the 'trends' you see have nothing significant to do with the teams involved or the likelihood of Edge being present.  There is nothing in the trend that 'causes' the result.  These are trends disguised as coincidences, and should be avoided at all costs.  Any 'trend' that has anything to do with the month, the time of day, the color of jersey, revenge motives, or any other highly arbitrary variable is useless in predicting NFL games.  Trends like this are the voodoo of handicapping.  Each contest is unique, and has equally unique fundamental and quantitative aspects.  Stick with a service that does the extra work to uncover REAL TRENDS.

Edge Trends -  Trends that DO have great potential value are those regarding situations that affect the Great Unwashed Herd's (GUH's) perception of a team.  For example: from 1996 to 1998, teams that covered at home on Monday night and then played on the road the next week were 3-14 ATS!  That's a huge trend, but does it make sense?  Is it a trend that highlights possible Edge?  YES.  First of all, a team covering on Monday night is usually swallowed whole by the GUH, and considered much better than they are.  Second, the fact that they did it at home will add just the right emotional element to assure that the GUH gets hooked.  Lastly, the GUH routinely underestimates how difficult it is to play 'away' on the short week following a Monday night game.  Trends that expose tendencies of the GUH to overreact to certain situations, are tremendous clues to where Edge can be found.  We know what those trends are, and tell you each week!

'X and O' Trends - Trends that are specific to the X's and O's of a certain team are perhaps the most valuable of all trends.  but you won't see many of them in the weekly publications, because to uncover and understand these trends, you really have to know football.  Most handicappers simply don't.  For example: there were three teams last year the did not cover a single game where their opponent rushed for over 120 yards.  How many of you would have guessed that it was the Jets, the Chargers, and the Giants (a combined 0-9 ATS)?  Knowing in advance that good running teams will be tough opponents for these teams is a BIG plus.

Lastly, remember that the GUH changes from week to week, and season to season, and so do the teams in the NFL.  Therefore, trends cannot be relied on indefinitely, but must be continually re-evaluated.  All the more reason to find a service that looks beyond the obvious.  The 'obvious' is GUH-nectar, and absolutely fatal!