Key Releases for Week 3 of the NFL - 2000
Note from Boss Hog: Our Key Releases went 4-1 in week 3 last year. All 5 were road teams, 3 dogs, 2 favorites. Two of our 3 road dogs (Vikings, Giants), won straight up, and all 3 covered! The only game we lost was the Ravens/Dolphins game, which if you remember, was played in a monsoon! Baltimore had it 1st and goal on 2 occasions and came away with no points. Even still, that game was our lowest unit play (2), and it was still a very profitable week! Also, our recommendations were 3-0-1, giving you a 7-1-1 card on that particular Sunday! Now that's value!
NY Giants (+2 1/2) over Chicago - Quadruple Play
WIN! Giants manhandled the Bears, winning 14-7 as a Dog. As we predicted, the Giants ran for 172 yards while holding the Bears to 48 yards rushing and 12 first downs all day!
Trends – Both squads are 1-1 ATS on the year. The Bears were 11-5 ATS in '99, the Giants just 7-9. But Chicago is just 2-6 vs. the NFC East since '96, and the Bears are 1-4 as a Favorite after failing to cover the previous week.
X’s and O’s – It doesn't happen often, but the line on this game is wrong by orders of magnitude! The 2-0 Giants are playing solid football in all aspects, while the Chicago Bears are 1-1, should be 0-2, and are worse than they were last year. If I'm wrong on this one, I'll tip my hat, but I will not miss this opportunity! Now for the details...
Since early last year, Chicago has gotten a lot of press about their 'creative offense', and initially, it was well deserved. But check the tape folks. The motion passing offense brought from Tulane is 29th in the league in avg. gain/pass, because teams have figured it out! You don't win by fooling people in the NFL - not for long anyway. The Bears' run game is much worse than the casual observer can see, because of gaudy rush stats posted by QB Cade McNown. But Enis is bigger and slower than ever, and still runs with his head down. James Allen is getting more carries because he gets to the hole quicker, which would be great if the Bears O-line ever opened any!
The Giants stingy 'D' is # 3 against the run, and will dictate to Chicago in this one. The G-men are giving up less than 50 rushing yards/game, and last week held Duce Staley to 11 yards on 7 carries. OK, the Bears will have to throw. But they average just over 4 yards per pass, and have given up 7 sacks in 2 games, just 1 off the NFL high of 8.
OK, Chicago's defense will shut them down. NOT! The Bears field the NFL's 29th ranked 'D', equally inept defending the run and pass. Chicago is giving up 171 yds/game rushing, and 5.2/carry! The Giants are rampaging for 195 rushing yards/game with Dayne and Barber, thanks primarily to a retooled and veteran offensive line. QB Kerry Collins is surprisingly composed and hitting on 70% of his passes. He's only been sacked once, and that might still be true Sunday night. The Bears have just 3 sacks, and are again among the leagues worst in pressuring QB's.
The Giants will show the Bears what a real NFL offense should look like on Sunday, and then expose Chicago's over rated offensive gimmicks en route to a thorough beating! If you only play one game this week, play this one. It is a mismatch in every conceivable aspect of the game. And we get points?
GUH Report – Tracking the Great Unwashed Herd
The GUH is all over this one! In a pre-season Monday Night Football Poll, the GUH voted Chicago as this year's St. Louis Rams. When expectations diverge this wildly from reality, only 2 things can happen: false favorites and divorce!
Vikings (+2) over New England - Triple PLAY
WIN! The Vikes won Straight up, 21-13, and ran the ball 43 times to New England's 18, just as we expected.
Trends – New England was 2-6-1 as a favorite in '99, and 16-25 since '96. Minnesota was a league worst 3-13 ATS last year.
X’s and O’s – Still sold on the Pats, even after their under-whelming cover vs. the Jets Monday night. This is still a one-dimensional offensive team that will put tremendous pressure on their defense. New England has averaged less than 5 yards/pass in each of their 1st 2 games, primarily because Bledsoe is throwing out of self-defense! He has been under constant pressure, despite the Jets' baffling unwillingness to blitz! The O-line is simply not NFL quality, and will be exposed.
The Vikings have picked up where they left off in '99, at least offensively. The key came about mid-way through '99, Dennis Green realized he ought to run the damned ball every now and then. This made defenses play honest (no more 7-man zones!), and the Vikes became tough to defend. They average 5.4 yards/carry, and have the added threat of Culpepper's scrambling ability to keep safeties guessing. The there's Moss and Carter. The Patriots cannot defend the run, Moss, and Carter at the same time.
Don't freak out because New England almost beat the Jets! The Jets, who didn't throw deep until the 4th quarter, still managed 7.3 yards/pass against New England, and their "deep threat" was Chrebet! Great guy, solid WR, but Wayne is no Moss or Carter! Bledsoe's boys have just 1 TD to show for 7 trips inside the 20 yard-line, and that won't be enough to keep pace with the Vikes. And we get points?
GUH Report – Tracking the Great Unwashed Herd - Rookie QB Culpepper's first road game and Bledsoe's overblown star quality...'nuff said.
Tampa Bay (-3) over Detroit - Triple PLAY
WIN! The Bucs romped, 31-10 on the road. Detroit's only offensive TD was a Hail Marry to end the 1st half. Other wise, the Lions had 17 yards rushing, gave up 7 sacks, 2 interceptions and a fumble!
Trends – The Bucs were 10-4 ATS last year, 5-2-1 on the road. The Lions were 7-8-1 overall, 6-3-1 as an underdog.
X’s and O’s – The lions have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, including last year's game in Detroit. So the trend geniuses will be all over Detroit this week, which is why the line is a ridiculous 3 points. Detroit is 2-0, but remember, Clinton is too, and he's no good either!
Repeat after me: "Detroit's offense has not scored!" And that's after games with the Saints and Redskins, who were both among the leagues worst defenses last year! The Lions are the 31st ranked offense in the league, and for good reason. They are the NFL's worst passing team (just 135 yards/game), and 27th in gain-per-rush (less than 3 ypc.). Consistent, but pathetic. Now overlay Tampa Bay's league leading pass D that allows less than 4 yards/pass, and has 11 sacks in 2 games. That's ugly! Ask yourself this: How many teams' offenses get better when they play the Bucs? Hmmm? It won't happen here either.
Tampa's offense is less than spectacular, but will do plenty to get the job done here. Detroit ranks 21st in avg./rush, so they will see plenty of Dunn and Alstott. Lion LB Stephen Boyd is likely out for Sunday, further limiting Detroit's rush-D.
Sure, Bucs QB King has looked less than stellar. Yeah, Detroit gives Tampa fits. That's why you only have to lay a field-goal! We've got a team that's surrendered 1-TD in eight quarters laying 3 points to a team that hasn't scored in 8 quarters! It's not tough!
GUH Report – Tracking the Great Unwashed Herd - Tampa is anti-GUH: Run-game and killer defense. Just not sexy!
Eagles (+4.5) over Green Bay - Double PLAY
WIN! The Eagles lost 6-3, but covered in a game that was not nearly this close. Philly turned the ball over 4 times, or it was a blowout and another 'Dog winning straight up!
Trends – Packers are 0-2 ATS this year, while Philly has won and covered as a Dog in Dallas, lost as a favorite at home to the Giants.
X’s and O’s – The Giants put a pounding on the formerly high-flying Eagles, which has caused the Philly-Bandwagon to go from overflowing to empty in just 1 game! People overlook how well the Giants are playing (we recommended the Giants last week), which is part of the reason this line is so out of whack.
New York beat Philly with there run game (#1 in the NFL), overall offensive balance, and their fast, physical, swarming defense. Green Bay has none of those things! The Pack is 30th in the league running the ball (only the Lions are worse), averaging 50 yards per game. RB Dorsey Levens practiced this week and may return, but the offensive line is the reason they can't run. ORT Earl Dotson will likely miss Sunday's game with a bad back, so the bad get worse. Favre will have to throw, but has fewer targets than ever. Outstanding Philly CB Bobby Taylor will lock up on Antonio Freeman, leaving Brett with 2nd and 3rd options only. The Eagles rank 7th against the pass, so there'll be nothing easy through the air.
On defense, Green Bay is in full decline. Starting CB Mckenzie is out, his backup is hurt, and they're playing a converted safety in his place. But it's the run game that will make the difference. Duce Staley is a hard-running workhorse RB, and he'll beat the Packers into submission. Remember week 1, when Curtis Martin was shredding the Pack defense for huge chunks of yards before he got hurt? Well, Staley runs harder, and will be more productive. That should soften things up for McNabb to pick the depleted Green Bay secondary apart. I like the Eagles to win this game outright, so I'll certainly take the points.
GUH Report – Tracking the Great Unwashed Herd - The GUH feels stupid for not realizing that the Giants would kick Philly's ass. Now, convinced that they were 'suckered' by a bad Eagle team, they're just positive that Green Bay won't go 0-3!
Ravens (-2) over Miami - Double PLAY
Loss! The 'Phins win 19-6 as Billick has a classic brain cramp and forgets to run the damned ball in a driving rainstorm!
Trends – Miami was just 2-6 at home last year, while the Ravens were 5-3 away.
X’s and O’s – This is another Week 3 match up between a horrible offense against a solid defense. Miami rushed for just 49 yards against the Vikings last week, and looked like their old selves. How do you like their chances against Baltimore's 'D' that's giving up 38 rushing yards/game?
The problem is that Dan Marino is tonight's guest of honor, not Miami's QB. That job falls to Jay Fiedler, who has been unimpressive in 2 outings, passing for 127 and 160 yards in Weeks 1 and 2. The Ravens' defense is light-years ahead of anything that Miami has faced, and will force mistakes that salt this game away. The Jaguars' Jimmy Smith had 15 catches for 291 yards against Baltimore last week, but among them were some outstanding efforts that only a handful of guys could make. The Dolphins have no one close to that level.
The Ravens must pound Priest Holmes at the Dolphins, out of 2 tight end sets, much like they did Week 1 in Pittsburgh. Miami will not score much, if at all, so ball control and intermediate passes will do it! Enter TE's Coates and Sharpe, and head coach Brian Billick will have to use them with WR Quadry Ismail out.
One thought on a possible "letdown" after last week's dramatic comeback win vs. Jacksonville. While possible, struggling programs that finally break through against perennial division champs usually play with greater intensity after such wins! This is a classic GUH trap.
GUH Report – Tracking the Great Unwashed Herd - The above 'letdown' logic, and the Dan Marino ceremony will convince the GUH that "Miami will be up!". Or not.
Other Recommendations
Recommendations are a combined 7-2 this year. Usually, it's line value that keeps these games out of the releases, so here's the trick. TEASE these games, and you'll have solid plays. In a 7-point teaser, our recommendations are 9-0! If you would like more details about teasers, send me an e-mail.
St. Louis (-13) over 49ers - San Fran is giving up almost 10 yds./pass, and now face the NFL's 4x100 relay team, on turf, on the road! The Rams are giving up too many points to be a Key Release (discipline is everything!), but they're worth a look. (WIN. Rams 41, SF 24)
St. Louis/SF over 55 1/2 - This number is so high, you've got to bet OVER! Actually, the Rams might get the total by themselves (they may have too!). (WIN: Total Points: 65)
Browns (+2) over Pittsburgh - If the Browns weren't a little banged up at WR and O-line, they'd be a Key Release. Pittsburgh should be favored against no one! (WIN: Browns 23, Pitt 20: another Dog Winner! Should have released them!)
Jacksonville (-13) over Bengals - concerns in JAX's run game with Taylor out, and injuries on the O-line keep this off the Key releases. Fact is, they'll still pound Cincy through the air. (PUSH: Jax 13, Cincy 0)
I Wouldn’t If I Were You…( Stay Away Games)
We warned you about 4 Home Favorites last week, and they were 0-4 ATS in those games, and lost 3 of them outright!
Seattle/Saints - Haslett has the Saints playing defense, and Kitna still lives.
KC/Chargers - KC has no backs, can't run the ball, and Leaf gets benched in San Diego. It's the Prozac Bowl