Many handicappers rely almost exclusively on quantitative models to pick their game.  At PigPicks.com we know that once you find a game that has real line value, real Edge, the work has just begun.  We take the approach that,  in addition to edge, you need two things simultaneously in order to win consistently on NFL Sundays.

• The 'Good Horse' Theory - No matter how badly a game is priced, we do not make the play unless we have a team fundamentally capable of taking advantage of the situation.  In other words, you've got to have a 'good horse' to ride.  There are teams that we would never play, regardless of Edge, because the are so fundamentally weak in key aspects of the game that they represent too large a risk.  Teams like this cannot be compensated for by mere Edge.   On the other hand, there are teams that are so strong that we would play them in any situation where Edge was present.  These 'good horses' are solid teams, though often unspectacular, that are sound enough to compete in any game, and exploit Edge.  Examples of this from early last season were the Giants and the Saints.  The Giants were actually an underdog to the Bears in week 3 despite their terrific play (the Giants won the game 14-7 and dominated statistically).  The Saints were playing smothering defense right out of the gate, but no one noticed.  The were actually an underdog to the Chargers early on, and won straight up.  These plays look obvious now, but not at the time, or they would never have been underdogs!  Imagine what the lines would have been in week 17 for Bears/Giants and Saints/Chargers!  We played them both, in size, in weeks 2 and 3.  Both of these games had huge Edge and gave our clients 'Good Horses'.